“That means indirectly some of the LNG can come from Russia still so contribute to their revenues,” he adds. “LNG is such an obvious solution that it became the priority, but because LNG is also so flexible and tradable it’s a bit harder to trace the provenance,” says Milan Elkerbout, research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies. The most immediate point of concern is that for all Europe has diversified its imports of gas, much of that currently sitting in reserve is liquefied natural gas (LNG).Īn LNG terminal in the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, last year. Despite these efforts, officials and analysts are fearful that however impressive these advancements have been, Europe’s energy is far from secure in the long term. What’s more, Europe has significantly diversified its sources of energy. The EU as a whole hit its target of stocks being 90% full by mid-August, months ahead of its November 1 deadline. Step two was to take advantage of the warm winter and fill up gas reserves in preparation for the cold season in 2023-24.Įurope’s gas stocks are already so full this year that there is a consensus the Kremlin will not be able to weaponize energy in a way that would alter European resolve against Moscow and support for Ukraine. According to EU data, in Q1 of 2023, Russia accounted for just 17.4% of all the bloc’s imported gas. In 2021, the year before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, 45% of all gas imported by the EU came from Russia. Step one was reducing imports from Russia. The receiving station for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia near Lubmin, Germany in February 2022. That combination of a warm winter and lower gas consumption created a window for Europe to pivot from its Wandel durch Handel (Change through Trade) policy – which assumed that Russia would fall in line with Western values for cash. Europe had an especially mild winter while governments and citizens made a concerted effort to use less gas. After all, developed countries like those in the European Union could not reasonably let their citizens go cold for the sake of Ukraine.Ī combination of luck, planning and Europeans’ support for Ukraine, however, left the energy war – once considered Putin’s ace in the hole – redundant. In the case of Russia and its natural gas, officials initially speculated that a long, cold winter in 2022-23 could force Europe to temper its punishment of Moscow. High among those was whether the continent could wean itself off the Russian gas it had thirstily guzzled for decades – and avoid being at the mercy of President Vladimir Putin should he cut that supply off in response to support for Ukraine.įor Europe, energy security has always been a trade-off: Cheap, imported energy comes with the risk of dependency on the countries from which it originates. From the moment Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine seemed inevitable, Europe knew it would soon have to ask itself some very complicated questions.
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